VIII Международная студенческая научная конференция Студенческий научный форум - 2016

Any large-scale economic crisis is always a serious reason for revision of results of socio-economic processes in any country individually and in the world in whole, and to rethink theoretical rules of the currently existing economic system. The current global economic crisis is not exception at this point. Its effects are significant, and they testify the entry of the world economy in the phase of correction and adjustment of the pre-crisis economic model (that was before 2008). Now, the crisis is in the spotlight of the international community, economists and politicians of almost all countries of the world. Even in the context of a weakening of the crisis difficulties (influence) for now, the identification of its causes and nature requires further analysis. The most complex and important issue is the search for effective anti-crisis measures due to which the problem of overcoming the crisis should be solved with the transfer of the economy in a growth phase. It is also very important to prevent new crisis collapses in the future. And the important question is of whether we can achieve this, if the crisis will not be a reason for changing the current economic system, changing the development model and renovation of the economic science. Because one of the meanings of the term "crisis" is dealing with its interpretation as a "turning point".

The relevance of the chosen topic is that in the first half of the XX century crisis caused irreparable damage to the whole economic world, and therefore it led to a change of the practical models of the economy entirely.

In this regard, the study of financial and economic crises is an essential part of training highly skilled specialists with expertise in the implementation and use of modern anti-crisis policies to prevent collapses in the economy.

Goals and objective of the work: To determine the significance of the influence of financial and economic crises, to consider the effect of them in the modern economy.

The object of the study is financial and economic crisis. In this case, the subject of the study is to identify the influence of crisis in the economy.

To achieve these goals there is need to solve the following problems:

• To explore the essence of financial and economic crisis;

• To consider the forms of crises;

• To determine the current situation and prospects of development of anti-crisis policies in the economy;

• To identify the problems of the development of anti-crisis policies and their development prospects;

• To make a conclusions of this work.

This work is based on the works of various authors on the financial and economic crises and on development of anti-crisis policies, legislation documents, Government Resolution, periodicals and electronic resources.

Methods of research: In the process of writing a work, I used theoretical methods of research.

• An analysis of the literature, government documents, articles, and statistics on the subject was conducted;

• summarized the main ideas and theses from the reading of the list of references;

• was made a systematization of this information in an easy for understanding form;

• was made a classification of the work in to theoretical part, practical part, and it, in turn, in research on a global scale and on the example of the USA.

A modern economic crisis: origins and causes

The main characteristics of modern crisis

The global economic crises as the imbalance between supply and demand in a market economic system occur with the cyclical constancy^I. Since the first global crisis in 1857¹ for a century and a half there were about 20 crises. The current crisis started in 2007 in the US mortgage market (The United States housing bubble)^II and then as a viral infection began to rapidly capture new areas of financial activity. Given its striking power it has very quickly become the global financial crisis, and then turned into a global economic crisis with a drop in production in the real sector of the economy and with other negative effects^III. For an overall estimation of the current crisis, we should highlight its three important characteristics².

Firstly, this crisis itself represents the first world crisis of global capitalism, which happened after the collapse of the world socialistic system in the Communist States of Central and Eastern Europe and beyond (Autumn of Nations³). This is the second wave of the crisis of the global capitalist economy. First wave began in 1994-1995 yy. ("Mexican crisis"), and continued with a full-scale crisis of 1997-1998 yy. ("Asian crisis"), which also covered the Russian economy and especially is remembered due to default on domestic debt (Ruble crisis⁴), which occurred in August 1998. Also, this crisis has affected countries in Latin America (Brazil, Argentina, etc.) in 1998-1999^IV.

It is important to stress that both of these crisis waves (1994-99 and 2007-08) at its origin have identical characteristics. As in one and in the other case, the initial collapse of the financial sphere appeared suddenly and after a period of rapid acceleration of the economy^IV. In both cases this sphere was interpreted as a major engine of economic development and its collapse served as a launching mechanism for further aggravation of the crisis.

Secondly, the current crisis serves as a crisis of the global liberalism model, pointing to the imperfection of modern economic system and to the ruling (dominant) liberal economic theories. The fact is that the liberal revolution, which began in the late 1970s, was followed by the liberal market reforms, received a powerful reinforcement due to the crash of the world socialist system, and this liberal model was most adequately embodied in the functioning of the financial system.

In the era of liberalism, financial capitalism won industrial capitalism in the competitive struggle. If previously the national financial systems were aimed at creating a mechanism for effective transfer of savings into investment, it has now become typical the transformation of finances into a global network that operates almost continuously on all continents and at the same time is not firmly (strongly) tied to the real economy.

Another important consequence of the separation of the financial sector from real economy is a serious change in the nature of recurring (cyclical) crises (Depression¹). From the classical variant of the crises of overproduction, they have turned to financial crises from which economic shocks appear and which are then extended to other areas of economic activity, including production.

Third, the current crisis can be considered as a turning point in the global economic system and in national economic models, as well as in economic science. From this side the crisis can be evaluated as a systemic crisis² in spite of the importance of its financial component.

The probability of a simultaneous change of the theoretical model and development strategy in the coming post-crisis is high. This is what happened in the capitalist system of economy after the Great Depression (1929-1933), when the state non-interference in the economy was replaced by the Keynesian revolution in the economic theory with the use of active methods of state regulation of the market economy, which was determined by the following long-run growth in the development of capitalism. Another new turn in the theory and practice of management took place after the second largest crisis of 1974-1975 yy. (Oil crisis^V), which led to the assertion of neoliberalism³ in the theory and methods of monetary dominance in economic policy (the Jamaican currency system).

Thus, the current global crisis, in which crises of various types are interwined (globalization and the financial-economic liberalism, economic system and economic science) and in which the traditional cyclical parameters are also presented - all these features give it the enormity and the increased level of risks.

The origins and causes of the crisis

Let us analyze in more detail the reasons of the crisis. First of all we are talking about the transition to an economic model focused on the achievement of short-term benefits (profits). This is equivalent to a rapid widening of the role of speculative factors and speculative economic model in a modern market economy¹.

Business was considered as "making money out of nothing", and the economy became as "the economy of speculative bubbles". In other words, there was a separation of money circulation with the development of production-consumer sector of the economy, which increases the volatility (instability) of financial markets and of the economic system in a whole. Creation of a global financial network weakens the connection between the world of money (finances) and the real economy.

It is estimated that currently only 2-3% of all financial transactions related to the real economy, and the rest belongs to transactions between financial institutions themselves. According to experts, the daily turnover in the foreign exchange market is $1.5-2 trillion USD, which is ten times greater than the world trade of goods. By the way, speculation on the foreign exchange market has become one of the main sources of high incomes of banks all over the world and is a common way of enrichment used in practice.

Today, even the real economic resources and benefits have become as a speculative instruments: oil, land, real estate, etc. This is especially true for the oil market. Currently, the volume of oil futures market 20 times larger than the actual volume of oil sales, while in the early 1990s the excess was amounted to five times². This means that the dynamics and the level of oil prices are not determined by the balance of supply and demand, and not even by the degree of influence from the monopolists (OPEC), but depend on the actions of speculative forces. This can be seen in the following example: just in few months, during which there has been no change in the ratio of supply and demand, oil price on world markets fell by almost 4 times (maximum value in July 2008 exceeded $147 per barrel, and in early December of this year, the price dropped below 40^1)VI.As a result, the modern market system, primarily by the example of the United States, represents a huge amount of unsecured debts with a real danger of becoming a huge flow of paper money created by credit expansion and numerous financial funds from the "void" (emptiness), which is then processed by financial institutions with using continuously created new financial instruments² generating more and more income. Such a situation gives to money special explosive features and no one knows when it can explode. With uncontrolled use of financial instruments, money become the main derivative³, maximally loaded with a variety of risks and inevitable inflation collapses.

Financial markets, having lost connection with the production and consumer economy, naturally acquired excessively increased risks due to their high degree of instability and exposure to strong fluctuations. This eventually led to rapid and uncontrolled rise in the use of derivatives with a complete separation from their real (secured) assets (as it was mentioned in example of the oil futures in 2008).

Especially high risk of arising pyramid of derivatives lies primarily in their two fundamental differences from other securities.

Firstly, their trade is mainly carried out in the mode of OTC⁴ deals, which leads to lack of control in building issue securities (high emission of securities).

Secondly, there is no insurance in their turnover. In essence, it is debts that are not backed by real assets. Related to this is the emergence of the key contradiction of modern financial capitalism between the limitedmaterial resources and the ability to create virtually unlimited financial resources by expanding the derivatives market. Therefore, when the collapse of the pyramid arises, it is very difficult to improve the financial system. Collapse of derivatives pyramid reminds the conflagration (fire), in which it is very difficult to detect the source of fire.

Another important change relates to the mechanism of the market valuation of businesses, which determines redistribution of available funds in the most profitable production. There was an actual loss of this mechanism, because modern stock market and its associated institutions (rating agencies, a variety of analytical services) do not value the real profitability of the business, but the possibility of obtaining future revenues through the mechanism of discounting (DCF)¹, and with the use of trading risks based on the reputation of the business. This greatly weakened the role of the real production results in favor of the financial achievements, enhancing the possibility of manipulation and deliberate deception that can be used to show the profitability and growth of future profits, regardless of the real activities. Moreover, there are created special tools in the model of financial capitalism, that allow to enrich investors-speculators, even in the case of falling markets, in other words, to make money on the crisis. Therefore, it is worth considering, whether the certain crisis happen from the fact that someone decided to earn some money on it.

Finally, in a speculative economic model investment behavior of economic agents depends not so much on economic laws and principles how much on laws of psychology, which is connected with examples of irrational behavior of agents. After all, the infinite desire for enrichment, based on the human passion for gambling, cannot be regarded as a sign of rational behavior of a normal person.

Hence, there is the huge scope for manipulation, the markets turned into platforms of great expectations and great panic moods. In these circumstances, the economy itself has become a game of chance (Casino economy).

Irrational ups and downs of the financial markets show economy as fundamentally uncontrollable and, moreover, not even the predictable system, since its changes are not dominated by economic factors, but with subjective motives and spontaneous factors.

The crisis and its consequences for global economy

For understanding the peculiarities of the functioning of modern speculative market model, we should distinguish its full becoming as a global system. All of its properties, advantages and disadvantages, as well as the occurred collapse, can be reliably measured mostly based on this fact.

USA under conditions of the global crisis

In fact, losing connection between finance and production, the financial system has lost stability. Giving it sufficient reliability through the creation of a global financial network in which many financial instruments and national currencies traded in a single (global) space does not compensate for the loss of connection with the real economic assets. "Economies of scale" in relation to the globalization of financial space played a fatal role. It has contributed to the improving the efficiency of the organization of the financial activities, but at the same time has led to dangerous risks in it, primarily related to the possibility of emergence of a huge amount of unsecured debt.

The imbalance, even with the ability of finance capital to create money out of "emptiness", turns into a need to use of redistribution mechanism to resolve such economic irrationality. Technically, a new model of maintaining of equilibrium in the world economy appeared. Chronic deficits in the US economy were covered by capital surpluses primarily by East Asian countries (China, Japan), and oil exporting countries. US deficit for 2012 was $1.6 trillion (or 9% of GDP) surplus of mentioned countries increased to $2.1 trillion.

The given ratio of the deficit of one country and surplus of capital in other one in the global economy, which is generally typical situation of the last 15 years, offers evidence of another important reason of the current global crisis. It is about the formed potential of recapitalization in the world economy, which was manifested in the inability of the global financial network to absorb the surplus of money capital. It has also become redundant (excessive) because the huge cash flows from all over the world, which were sent in the United States (up to 80% of the global flow of capital^VII) and went to pay off the deficit, were not used for the development of the economy. They were spent on the state consumption in the interests of maintaining geopolitical supremacy in the world and to ensure a high level of consumption of the US population. In other words, the modern American model that was developed as a model of excessive consumption financed by savings from other countries came close to his exhaustion. This led to the use of development policy at the zero rate of domestic savings and, consequently, the rapid rise of US debt. The total amount of the debt exceeds $ 50 trillion, (90% of global GDP). The national debt increased in 2000-01.11.15 from $ 5.7 trillion to $ 18.6 trillion^VIII.This new model of world economy, characterized by disequilibrium, which laid the serious imbalances in the global financial and economic system, requires a radical transformation. Attempts of the US government to overcome the crisis while maintaining the current economic model with increased levels of consumption ("consumer boom") will be held back by the limitations associated with: reduced possibility of attracting foreign investment because of the potential loss of the attractiveness of dollar-denominated investments and weakening of the US dollar as a world reserve currency; and due to the outbreak of reorientation capital excessed States (especially China) on the development of domestic consumption. An alternative and more viable option to overcome the crisis, aimed at restoring adequate domestic savings rates and investment activity, is extremely difficult to implement. The use of it will reduce the level of consumption in the country and government spending, but with a corresponding aggravation of social conflicts and weakening of geopolitical supremacy.

Ways for the US withdrawal from the crisis

One can only state that the way out of the global crisis depends on whether the US will be able to such a turn of the economy. The proposed program of anti-crisis measures, one of the priorities of which is to put forward the recovery of consumer activity and increased stimulation of consumption, shows the fact that it will be difficult to implement.

In general, considering the problem of radical elimination of global imbalances in the world economy, especially those related to excessive debt across economic space, it should be noted that in the historical practice there were several options to solve it.

Firstly, we can distinguish political-military option, the possibility of which is confirmed by the lessons of the Great Depression. We must not forget that its final chord was the outbreak of the Second World War.

Secondly, the global imbalances can be removed by a large-scale (massive) devaluation¹ of the dollar as the de facto global reserve currency and the possible emergence of a new truly global reserve currency, or "basket" of currencies.

Third, the emerged global imbalances can be eliminated inflationary way (emission method²). It is enough to start a massive purchase of US government debt, by turning on a printing press to explode a huge monetary amount in the world economy into the global inflation, which is caused because of the injection of liquidity in the national economy.

Of course, such a "hard landing" of the world economy with powerful economic and socio-political shocks, it is not necessarily important to implement. There are, for sure, softer ways to overcome the global crisis, but they require concerted actions and in this case they cannot be done without radical and coordinated changes primarily in the international monetary systems³.

World economic crisis: The way out

The objectives of the anti-crisis policy

The current world crisis has become a significant event in economic history. For the first time in 60 years the world economy and the majority of the countries experienced in 2009 an absolute decline of key macroeconomic indicators. The crisis is also remembered by the huge financial losses and investments of the States in its overcoming. The aggregate amount of funds already allocated around the world to overcome the crisis is estimated at $17 trillion (which is about a third of global GDP), of which $11 trillion, according to the IMF (International monetary fund), has already been spent.

The scale of the crisis makes significant a problem of creating of anti-crisis measures that could effectively neutralize the crisis factors. In this regard, there are two different approaches to its implementation. The first approach - a policy of blocking the crisis while maintaining the current economic structure of the world economy. The second - to overcome the crisis with the elimination of the root causes that gave rise to it, and finally - with the change of the type of economic structure of national economic systems and the world economy as a whole.

In the first case it is about temporary easing of economic problems by a huge cash injection, which should, according to plan, revive the world economy. However, the idea that huge amount of money the crisis can be resolved - is an illusion. Such huge cash injection, which are now used by the majority of States, including the Russian Federation, may temporarily ease the crisis limitations and even some time to bring the economy into the growing phase. And indeed, since the third quarter of 2009 in most crisis-stricken countries there is a weakening of crisis consequences.

However, the probability of a new wave of crisis (may be even more devastating), remains high. After all, huge sums of money thrown into the financial sector did not go into production, but again went to the financial markets, turning into a significant increase of public debt in the financial and economic development of countries. This is evidenced by the growth in 2009 of the amount of derivatives (after a massive collapse of it during crisis) that began the speculative acceleration of oil prices, the formation of other "bubbles", such as the real estate market in East Asia or the gold market, etc. Should be taken into consideration the inherent unpredictability in the formed model of the economy and the emergence of new threats to sustainable economic development.

In this connection, it is advisable to carefully analyze the whole range of anti-crisis measures developed in the Keynesian theory and applied during the Great Depression and in further periods. It requires additional stimulation of aggregate demand as a method to get the economy out of the crisis. Should be taken into consideration the changes in economic conditions nowadays, which are caused by increasing globalization and open national economies, as well as the achievement of the boundaries of excess consumption in most developed capitalist countries. In any case, it is clear that the simple expansion of aggregate demand by pumping huge cash amounts in the financial sector is not a way to overcome the crisis, but only creates new risks associated with the emergence of "deflationary trap" (in developed economies), or "inflation explosion" ( in developing economies).

Until the root errors of current global speculative financial system will not be eliminated, there is a risk of emerging of large-scale crises. This means that the way out of the crisis must be sought in the rejection of speculative and irrational model of "casino economy". Only through the weakening of speculative component in the global economic activity and the re-subordination of the financial system to work in the interest of the consumer-production and socio-economic activities a full recovery of the economy can be achieved.

The anti-crisis policy

Increase in anxiety due to huge losses of the government, businesses and people during the crisis highlights necessity of changing the current economic model. For now, of course, it is difficult to predict the possible direction of change in the principles of functioning of the economy.

However, events that occurred in the world economy is good reason to change the current economic model, but the main measure should be done on limiting the possibility of full recovery of speculative economic model. Among such measures are the following:

1. Rejection of use of some national currency as a global reserve currency.

Theoretically, this involves the creation of a global reserve currency with a corresponding emission center and the general rules of its functioning. Of course, the implementation of such a project creates immense difficulties.

More realistically can be considered variants of the formation of "a basket of regional reserve currencies", or the return of gold in the global monetary system. In the first case we can speak about the origin of polycurrency systems based on multiple reserve currencies. In the second - it is about the refusal of emission nature of currencies, which was implemented by Jamaican currency system (1976) after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and restoring the security of currencies by real assets. The issue of unsecured money creates the economy of huge unsecured debts with the inevitable speculative bubbles. In these circumstances, the return of gold in the world monetary system (in theory, as of any other real asset) gives to money true versatility and reliability.

Another important element to be included in the global monetary system is associated with the need to shift from floating exchange rates to fixed national currencies. This measure can be a key to limit speculative activities and to ensure the stability of the global monetary system.

2. The establishment of strict and transparent rules regulating the market of complex financial instruments to the creation of monitoring areas (eg, in the form of clearing house), in which their trading is carried out. This is especially true for the market credit default swaps (CDS¹), which insuring against default. Nowadays, "shadow financial system" is formed as the latest manifestation of the shadow economy and shadow economic power.

3. The introduction of an additional tax on all speculative transactions. Today, in many countries it is already implemented in the form of an additional tax on excess profits bonuses received from speculation. Justification of this measure is to bring back commercial banks to their main purpose - lending to the real sector of the economy.

4. The transition to a system of fixed prices for energy (oil, coal, gas) in the world markets with their procedures for periodic revisions based on the equilibrium between the interests of producers and consumers.

5. Return to the international practice of differentiation and specialization in the activities of financial institutions. Primarily this should restore the separation between commercial and investment banks, at which commercial banks would be prohibited from engaging in transactions with shares.

6. Generalization and use the experience of the Islamic financial model in which commercial banks act as co-investor in the project and receive not an interest, but a part of the income realized from the project. Because with such a model the crisis hit them less than others.

The proposed measures, of course, do not exhaust the whole package of other changes and require further analysis. But they, in my opinion, reveals the logic and direction of change in the world economic sphere, if we really want to solve the problem of the transformation of the economy to speculative-financial model. Just as after the Great Depression, capitalism moved to the model of regulated economy, today we can expect a further extension of the model of regulated economy, but in relation to finance field with taking into account the use of both national and international regulators.

Conclusion

The global economic and financial crises of recent years have resulted from the failure of the existing financial system, primarily due to the poor quality of regulation of the world economy and the speculative nature of the financial sector. In this work, analysis of the global crises was conducted and was considered the causes for the emergence and extension of the crisis, which began in 2008 in the US market and then covered virtually the entire world. In accordance with the objectives of this work:

• The lessons of the Great Depression in the United States in 1929-1933, of the financial crisis in 1974, the financial crisis in Mexico in 1994-95, Asian and Russian crisis in 1997-98, Financial crisis in 2008-09 were examined. These crises have been selected specifically for the study, as they are quite similar and close to each other;

• Distinctive features and characteristics of the current financial crisis were revealed. The current world financial crisis covered most developed and developing countries. This crisis had a global, innovative and structural nature (character). The world economy needs serious structural upgrades;

• The main causes of the global financial crisis were examined. The main causes primarily include financial networks using spontaneous and speculative market instruments, which laid the origins of the current world crisis. Other important factors are the excess liquidity in the US economy, the dollar overproduction, new financial instruments (futures, swaps, derivatives, etc.), inadequate risk valuation by various institutions, etc. These factors contributed to the formation of market bubbles, especially in markets of real estate, stocks, raw materials, etc.;

• The analysis of the impact of the global financial crisis on the US economy and the world in general was considered, and anti-crisis measures that were undertaken there was considered.

• The potential causes that may lead to a second wave of the global financial crisis was considered, and measures, which can eliminate future crisis waves, were examined.

In recent years, global financial regulatory institutions did not take adequate actions to the ongoing events, which confirmed the discrepancy between their activity to the needs of today's multi-polar world. The world is confronted with serious economic shocks due to the lack of tools to prevent and minimize the consequences of the crisis.

On the background of the financial crisis, global banks have lost up to $100 bln. every 3-4 months, but not all have noticed that the Islamic banks and financial institutions remained aloof from the crisis. It would be logical to learn from their experiences and extract benefit from it for the effective management of the banks in the future.

The instability of financial systems, the aggravation of social problems and the economic slowdown are forcing governments to take various measures to stabilize and stimulate the economy (ex.: fiscal policy measures) and support the country's real economy. Of course, such measures as an increase of benefits to the population, the injection of money in various types of production, reduction of income tax, etc. are being taken. Of course, a revival of the economy and overcoming the crisis requires a set of measures, which were listed above.

Problems that are listed in this work are very extensive. Every day in the world economy something new appears, thereby bringing all the new information for analysis. Therefore, each topic that is mentioned in the work is worthy of a separate study.

The current financial crisis has shown that there are various unresolved issues in the economy as for one state, and for the entire economic world. However, precisely because of the crisis, these problems have been identified and examined. After all, as John F. Kennedy said (35th President of the United States):

In the Chinese language, the word "crisis" is composed of two characters, one representing danger and the other, opportunity.

After all, the crisis is essentially a mechanism for purification of the weaknesses of the economy. And to ensure equilibrium in the economy and further prosperity, this quality of the crisis should definitely be used.

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• McConnell CR, Brue SL Economics: Principles, Problems and Policy. In 2 vols. T. 1. M .: Republic. 1992.

• V.T. Ryazanov. The economic system of Russia: on the way to another economy. SPb., 2009.

• V.T. Ryazanov. The anti-crisis policy of the Russian Federation: strategic priorities and operational objectives // The Economist. 2009. № 12.

• V.T. Ryazanov. The global economic crisis and its consequences // Modern problems of the economy. 2012.

• P. Samuelson Economics. In 2 vols. T. 1. M .: NGO "Algona", 1992.

• L. Fedun and oil Country: // join OPEC Bulletin. 2008 November 17. S. 6.

• J. Hicks. R. Cost and capital. M., 1993.

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Date of appeal for all Internet sources: November 2015.

Appendix

1^ The first global economic crisis of 1857-1858. URL: http://www.globfin.ru/articles/crisis/crisis.htm (Retrieved 28.10.2015)

2^ Рязанов В.Т. Хозяйственный строй России: на пути к другой экономике. СПб., 2009. С. 371–404.

3^ Nedelmann, Birgitta; Sztompka, Piotr (1 January 1993).Sociology in Europe: In Search of Identity. Walter de Gruyter. pp. 1.

4^ Chiodo, Abbigail J.; Owyang, Michael T. (2002). "A Case Study of a Currency Crisis: The Russian Default of 1998" (PDF).Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 84 (6): 7–18.

1^ Depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than an economic recession, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.

2^ The systemic crisis - failure of mechanisms of system self-regulation, the transition of the system to the position of the unstable state (bifurcation), when there is a possibility of the complete destruction of the system, as well as transition of it to a new more difficult level of regulation.

3^ Neoliberalism is a term whose usage and definition have changed over time. In the 1970s and 1980s, its advocates supported extensive economic liberalization policies such as privatization, fiscal austerity, deregulation, free trade, and reductions in government spending in order to enhance the role of the private sector in the economy.

1^ Speculation is the practice of engaging in risky financial transactions in an attempt to profit from fluctuations in the market value of a tradable good such as afinancial instrument, rather than attempting to profit from the underlying financial attributes embodied in the instrument such as capital gains, interest, or dividends.

2^ Федун Л. Страна и нефть: вступить в ОПЕК // Ведомости. 2008. 17 ноября. С. 6.

1^ Руслан Шамуков. Динамика цен на нефть с 1990 г. Досье // Сайт «tass.ru». URL: http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1572991 (Retrieved: 29.10.2015)

2^ Financial instruments are tradable assets of any kind. They can be cash, evidence of an ownership interest in an entity, or a contractual right to receive or deliver cash or another financial instrument. (Cash, Credit line, Deposit, Derivative, Futures contract, Loan, Option etc., etc.)

3^ A derivative is a contract that derives its value from the performance of an underlying entity. This underlying entity can be an asset, index, or interest rate, and is often called the "underlying".

4^ Over-the-counter(OTC) or off-exchange trading is done directly between two parties, without any supervision of an exchange. It is contrasted with exchange trading, which occurs via exchanges. In an OTC trade, the price is not necessarily published for the public.

1^ Discounted cash flow(DCF) analysis is a method of valuing a project, company, or asset using the concepts of the time value of money.

1^ Devaluation on modern monetary policy is a reduction in the value of acurrency with respect to those goods, services or other monetary units with which that currency can be exchanged. "Devaluation" means official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange rate system, by which the monetary authority formally sets a new fixed rate with respect to a foreign reference currency.

2^ The emission method of financing the state budget deficit - consists in the fact that the State (Central Bank) increases the money supply, i.e. issuing additional money, which covers in excess of their expenditure over income.

3^ International monetary systems are sets of internationally agreed rules, conventions and supporting institutions, that facilitate international trade, cross border investment and generally the reallocation of capital between nation states. They provide means of payment acceptable between buyers and sellers of different nationality, including deferred payment.

1^ A credit default swap(CDS) is a financial swap agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer (usually the creditor of the reference loan) in the event of a loan default (by the debtor) or other credit event. This is to say that the seller of the CDS insures the buyer against some reference loan defaulting.

I^ Appendix 1. Business activity shows cycles of economic expansion-recession (P. Samuelson, W. Nordhaus. ECONOMICS, 2010).

II^ Appendix 2. A graph showing the median and average sales prices of new homes sold in the United States between 1963 and 2010. (Source: Census.gov).

III^ Appendix 3. Export of goods and services in different countries and GDP growth. (World Bank. URL: http://data.worldbank.org/news/mdg-challenges-from-2008-financial-crisis).

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^ Appendix 4. Crises from 1994 to 2010

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