СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПОЛОВОЗРАСТНОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ - Студенческий научный форум

VI Международная студенческая научная конференция Студенческий научный форум - 2014

СТАТИСТИЧЕСКОЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ПОЛОВОЗРАСТНОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

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Population structure is the distribution of people, forming the population into groups according to the values of a particular trait.

The distribution structure of persons by gender and age is necessary to study the demographic and socio-economic processes. Choice of the topic is due to the necessity of research and analysis of socio-economic processes, since this area of life in modern Russia has many problem sand shortcomings. Age and gender structure of population is the distribution of population by age group separately for men and women.

Age structure is one of the most important structures. Age structure is described by the groups and relative indicators.

Most often it is based on study of distinguished age groups annually and every five-year period, but depending on the purpose of analysis, there are other groups.

Table 1. POPULATION BY AGE GROUPS 1)

 

Thou. persons

Percent of total

Females per 1000 males of corresponding age

2002

2011

2012

2002

2011

2012

2002

2011

2012

Total population

145167

142865

143056

100

100

100

1147

1163

1162

of which by age of, years:

                 

0-4

6399

8051

8380

4.4

5.6

5.9

953

951

950

5-9

6941

7117

7261

4.8

5.0

5.1

956

954

954

10-14

10407

6601

6567

7.2

4.6

4.6

959

952

952

15-19

12800

8237

7631

8.8

5.8

5.3

968

961

959

20-24

11466

12122

11599

7.9

8.5

8.1

983

972

967

25-29

10613

12012

12328

7.3

8.4

8.6

997

993

989

30-34

9835

11016

11116

6.8

7.7

7.8

1001

1020

1014

35-39

10217

10211

10380

7.0

7.1

7.3

1033

1046

1048

40-44

12547

9251

9340

8.6

6.5

6.5

1062

1065

1060

45-49

11606

10561

10023

8.0

7.4

7.0

1113

1117

1115

50-54

10072

11509

11560

6.9

8.1

8.1

1170

1187

1180

55-59

5347

10063

10215

3.7

7.0

7.1

1260

1304

1302

60-64

7983

7982

8380

5.5

5.6

5.9

1456

1417

1419

65-69

6345

3913

3896

4.4

2.7

2.7

1596

1678

1622

70 and over

12469

14219

14380

8.6

10.0

10.0

2477

2373

2379

age not specified

120

-

-

0.1

-

-

986

-

-

Out of total population:

                 

under working age

26327

23209

23568

18.1

16.2

16.5

957

953

952

working age 2)

88942

87847

87055

61.3

61.5

60.8

985

944

939

over working age

29778

31809

32433

20.5

22.3

22.7

2209

2543

2523

1) Data is given: for 2002 – according to the population census as of October 9 ; for 2011, 2012 –as of January 1 .

An annual group is a group people of same age or same year of birth. Distribution of people on one-year age group offers the best opportunity to analyze the status and changes in age structure. However, data on age structure in the annual group is exposed to distorting the phenomenon of accumulation of age. Many people do not give much importance to the accuracy of the mention of his or her age, and in the past, many did not know his or her exact age, so pointing it at the census approximately, with rounding.

The analysis of the age and gender composition also uses a graphical method. In the latter most often used the age-gender pyramid is a graphical image of the distribution of population by age and gender. Usually, a pyramid is built on a one-year or five-year age groups.

Age and gender pyramid is a diagram in which the number (or proportion of the population) of people of all ages represents horizontal bar of a certain size. Ordinate cause age groups, on the horizontal axis are the number or proportion of the population of corresponding age.

On the vertical axis scale of the band lay in two directions: left to men, right for women. The features and age-gender pyramid, ledges, or deformation of its segments can be judged on the impact of the processes of fertility and mortality on the age structure of the population for many decades, as well as future trends in population reproduction and the possible prospects of changing its size.

The modern age and gender pyramid of the population in Russia was formed under the influence of two groups of factors: the evolutionary changes as a consequence of regular decrease mortality and fertility during the demographic transition; and the swing of impacts associated with economic and social upheavals, which was so rich in history of Russia in the twentieth century.

If such effects do not swing it, the contour of the pyramid would change gradually, reflecting the typical period of demographic transition, population aging: the base of the pyramid would become more narrow; its upper part would be increasingly larger, the ratio of male and female parts of the pyramid would not be undergoing large changes, and its edges would remain smooth.

Picture 1 Age and gender structure of population as of January 1, 2012 г.

It is true that in Russia, unfortunately, exists a very high male "super mortality" in the working ages. Nevertheless, the interpretation of the huge "female superiority" as a consequence of political and economic reforms 90 years has nothing to do with reality. Over the last decade, the gender ratio in the population of Russia was neither worse nor better.

The main reason for Russia's "female superiority" is World War II and the associated huge loss of male population. Naturally, since the war is in the past, the gender ratio is equalized.

Thus, improvement of gender ratio in older age is a clear indication that the influence of social upheaval and, above all, the wars in this relation loses its meaning. In the middle ages as an adverse relationship - no doubt a consequence of the excess mortality of men in peacetime. However, it is this ratio over the past ten years has not changed or changed only slightly (a little worse in rural areas), which once again points to the compensatory nature of the dynamics of mortality in this period.

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